BANK OF IRELAND ECONOMIST PREDICTS GROWTH OF 6% IN 2004 AS CELTIC TIGER RETURNS

- TAX RECEIPTS WILL EXCEED BUDGET TARGET BY Eur2 BILLION -

Dr. Dan McLaughlin, Group Chief Economist, Bank of Ireland today (Wednesday 9 June, 2004) presented his quarterly economic outlook for 2004. He predicted that the Irish economy would see the return of the Celtic Tiger with 6% growth likely this year.

Commenting on the factors behind these forecasts Dr. McLaughlin said,
"The global recovery has now turned to boom in a number of key economies - China is growing at 10%, the US is expanding at 5% pace and the UK is also growing above trend. The euro is showing some signs of economic life adding to an international backdrop, which is the most positive faced by the Irish economy since the late 1990's. The upshot is a quickening in the pace of economic activity in Ireland, with projected 6% growth and a return of the Celtic Tiger. This is below the growth rates recorded in the 1990's, largely because Ireland has no pool of unemployed workers to draw from, but it is high enough to keep Ireland well ahead in the euro growth league."

"The strength of economic activity will also underpin exchequer finances and it is expected that tax receipts will exceed the budget target by Eur2 billion. This does not take full account of any inflows from offshore accounts. Consequently, the general Government balance will be in surplus, opening up the possibility of a much more generous tax package in the 2005 budget", he concluded.

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9th June 2004

ENDS

For reference:

Dr Dan McLaughlin
Group Chief Economist
Bank of Ireland
Tel: 01 609 3326

Stephanie Malone
Marketing Communications Manager
Bank of Ireland Global Markets
Tel: 01 609 4551

Anne Mathews
Media Relations Manager
Corporate Communications
Tel: 01 604 3836